Drama Pendek Tiongkok “Berubah Cuaca”: Lü Pao Pao Masuk, Hongguo Hapus “Nonton Dapat Koin”
Apakah Lü Pao Pao Sudah Mengancam Hongguo?
Belum. Menurut sumber industri, “Lü Pao Pao belum memberi dampak besar pada Hongguo. Hongguo tetap beroperasi normal dan tidak mengeluarkan kebijakan khusus untuk menekannya.”
Meski WeChat memiliki basis pengguna masif, data resmi menunjukkan:
- Rata-rata durasi pengguna Lü Pao Pao sekitar 5x rata-rata industri.
- Tingkat retensi 2,5x rata-rata industri.
- Selama uji coba, drama AI live-action 《影后芽芽》 menembus ratusan juta tayangan dalam 3 hari, menjangkau lebih dari 10 juta pengguna di dua platform.
Namun, industri masih melihat Lü Pao Pao dalam fase eksplorasi. “Strategi ‘viralitas sosial’ Lü Pao Pao adalah pedang bermata dua—banyak orang punya ‘rasa malu menonton drama pendek’ dan enggan membagikan apa yang mereka tonton.”
Mengapa Hongguo Menghapus Fitur “Nonton Dapat Koin”?
Pada 21 Oktober, Hongguo mengumumkan akan menghapus fitur koin secara bertahap:
- 1 November 2026: pengguna baru tidak lagi mendapatkan fitur koin.
- 31 Desember 2026: fitur koin dihapus sepenuhnya untuk semua pengguna.
- Koin dan saldo tunai yang sudah diperoleh tetap aman.
“Nonton drama dapat koin” dulu menjadi cara utama Hongguo menarik dan mempertahankan pengguna. Banyak orang menonton terus-menerus demi koin—strategi pemasaran yang efektif untuk membesarkan skala dengan cepat. Namun ketika basis pengguna sudah besar, mempertahankan pertumbuhan hanya dengan subsidi dan pembelian trafik membuat biaya platform makin tinggi.
“Bagaimana membuat penonton tidak lagi menonton demi koin, tetapi demi cerita—itu pertanyaan yang harus dijawab Hongguo.”
Ini juga menjadi inti persaingan Lü Pao Pao vs Hongguo: yang pertama mencoba mencari pintu masuk trafik baru melalui basis pengguna dan rantai sosial WeChat; yang kedua menyesuaikan model operasional yang dulu bergantung pada insentif koin.
Bagaimana AI Mengubah Produksi Drama Pendek?
AI telah mengubah segalanya. Dulu, drama live-action harus selesai syuting seluruhnya sebelum bisa dipromosikan. Kini, drama AI bisa dibuat beberapa episode dulu, diuji, dan jika tidak ada respons, investasi dihentikan.
Biaya uji coba sangat rendah: satu komputer, satu alat AI, satu akun Douyin—itu sudah cukup untuk menjadi “perusahaan”. “Tanpa sengaja bisa viral.”
Namun, biaya rendah bukan berarti tanpa hambatan. Membeli trafik (投流) adalah keharusan. Sumber industri menyebut:
- Mereka melihat jumlah belanja iklan dan arus kas, bukan jumlah tayangan.
- Jika tayang di mini program sendiri atau Lü Pao Pao resmi, bagi hasil 3%.
- Jika tayang di Video Account WeChat, bagi hasil 5%.
- Kriteria penerimaan sangat ketat: hanya menerima tema anak ajaib, manis, dan CEO; total sekitar 100 menit, 60 episode.
- “Live-action, kostum kuno, dan 3D belum diterima karena data di Lü Pao Pao biasa saja.”
Mengapa Pendapatan Penulis Naskah Menurun?
Li Ke (nama samaran), penulis naskah drama pendek penuh waktu sejak 2024, mengatakan:
- Semester I: “Setiap naskah yang saya tulis lolos, honor di atas 10.000 yuan.”
- Semester II: “Sulit lolos, honor juga turun.” Hongguo bahkan menghapus jaminan minimum untuk drama animasi.
- Banyak studio ikut menurunkan honor.
“ByteDance punya kendali besar di jalur drama pendek. Sedikit penyesuaian pada koefisien bagi hasil dan strategi jaminan bisa menimbulkan gejolak besar di industri.”
Kini studio menuntut lebih tinggi: “Singkatnya, sesuatu yang tidak bisa dihasilkan AI.”
Li Ke mulai bimbang: apakah mengejar “Rencana Seribu Judul” drama live-action Hongguo—dengan jaminan 20.000 yuan, tetapi biaya pengajuan 30 episode terlalu besar dan kini harus mengajukan naskah lengkap—atau mengirim ke studio dengan honor hanya beberapa ribu yuan, “biaya hangusnya tidak terlalu besar”.
Soal Lü Pao Pao, Li Ke mengaku berharap ini jadi peluang baru, tetapi belum merasakan gelombang penerimaan naskah. “Saat ini Lü Pao Pao lebih banyak menerima film jadi, bukan naskah. Semua orang masih menunggu.” Ia menilai pengguna WeChat lebih tua, sehingga cerita dengan konflik kuat dan ritme cepat lebih menarik—bukan naskah gratis untuk anak muda yang disukai Hongguo.
Bagaimana Platform Memperketat Aturan?
Hongguo dan platform lain memperketat audit konten dan aturan kerja sama:
- Ambang penulis naskah naik: dulu cukup mengirim kerangka, sekarang harus naskah lengkap.
- “Perjanjian kerangka” berubah: tim dengan perjanjian kerangka mendapat kolam IP Fanqie dan dukungan trafik lebih baik.
- Sistem “balapan kuda” (赛马制): Oktober ini Hongguo memulai evaluasi dinamis bulanan—jika data drama yang diunggah tidak memenuhi standar, perjanjian kerangka otomatis dicabut; setelah data memenuhi standar, otomatis diperpanjang.
Bagaimana Ledakan Kapasitas AI Mendorong Kualitas?
Data DataEye-ADX menunjukkan pada September 2026:
| Indikator | Data |
|---|---|
| Judul baru AI/animasi di Douyin | 51.800 judul (pertama kali menembus 50 ribu/bulan) |
| Pertumbuhan MoM | +10,7% |
| Tingkat tembus 100 juta tayangan | Hanya 0,72% |
| Homogenitas | Sangat parah |
Setelah jumlah drama meledak, apakah penonton mau terus menonton menjadi ujian berikutnya. Pengguna Shanghai, Li, mengaku dulu menganggap drama pendek “menurunkan IQ”, tapi kini pandangannya terhadap kualitas drama AI berangsur membaik: “Gambarnya makin bagus, terutama drama AI Amerika buatan Tiongkok—banyak teman saya menontonnya.”
Transformasi paling brutal terlihat di Hengdian. Tahun lalu, kru film di mana-mana—makan malam pukul 9–10 malam adalah hal biasa. Musim panas ini, sumber industri mengunjungi Hengdian dan menemukan: bahkan di jam makan, restoran di sepanjang jalan kosong. Bahkan sopir taksi tahu: “Kru film di Hengdian jauh berkurang, semua bikin drama AI.”
Para aktor “Hengpiao” paling terjepit. Ada yang bertahun-tahun akhirnya mendapat peran utama—baru dua bulan syuting, AI datang, tidak ada lagi pekerjaan. Sementara “pengambil kartu” (抽卡师) juga menyusut: editing dan pengambilan kartu digabung menjadi satu posisi, satu tim 8–9 orang, sekitar 15 hari menyelesaikan satu drama.
Kepatuhan juga makin ketat. Naskah AI bisa dipakai, tetapi risiko terbesarnya adalah pelanggaran hak cipta—”kamu tidak tahu apakah AI menjiplak karya orang lain.” Dengan pengawasan penandaan konten AI dan perlindungan hak potret yang makin ketat, pembuat drama harus melewati gerbang kepatuhan.
Namun sinyal baru telah muncul: Mango TV menayangkan drama panjang AI 《后西游记》—”stasiun TV turun langsung membuat drama AI” memberi kepercayaan pada industri, dan membuat pelaku usaha berharap akan lebih banyak drama AI tayang di TV.
Has Lü Pao Pao Already Threatened Hongguo?
Not yet. According to industry sources, “Lü Pao Pao has not yet had a major impact on Hongguo. Hongguo continues to operate normally and has not issued any special policy to suppress it.”
Although WeChat has a massive user base, official data shows:
- Average user duration on Lü Pao Pao is about 5x the industry average.
- Retention rate is 2.5x the industry average.
- During beta testing, the AI live-action drama 《影后芽芽》 broke hundreds of millions of views in 3 days, reaching over 10 million users across two platforms.
However, the industry still sees Lü Pao Pao in an exploratory phase. “Lü Pao Pao’s ‘social virality’ strategy is a double-edged sword—many people have ‘short drama shame’ and are reluctant to share what they’ve been watching.”
Why Did Hongguo Remove the “Watch to Earn Coins” Feature?
On October 21, Hongguo announced it would phase out the coin feature:
- November 1, 2026: new users will no longer receive the coin feature.
- December 31, 2026: the coin feature will be fully removed for all users.
- Coins and cash balances already earned remain safe.
“Watch drama, earn coins” was once Hongguo’s primary way to attract and retain users. Many people watched continuously for coins—an effective marketing strategy to rapidly scale. But once the user base became large, maintaining growth solely through subsidies and traffic purchases made platform costs increasingly high.
“How to make viewers watch not for coins, but for the story—that is the question Hongguo must answer.”
This is also the core of the Lü Pao Pao vs Hongguo competition: the former tries to find new traffic entrances through WeChat’s user base and social chain; the latter adjusts its operational model that once relied on coin incentives.
How Is AI Changing Short Drama Production?
AI has changed everything. Previously, live-action dramas had to be fully filmed before promotion. Now, AI dramas can be made a few episodes first, tested, and if there’s no response, investment is stopped.
Trial costs are extremely low: one computer, one AI tool, one Douyin account—that’s enough to be a “company.” “You might go viral by accident.”
However, low cost does not mean no barriers. Buying traffic (投流) is mandatory. Industry sources note:
- They look at ad spend and cash flow, not view counts.
- If shown on their own mini program or official Lü Pao Pao, revenue share is 3%.
- If shown on WeChat Video Account, revenue share is 5%.
- Acceptance criteria are strict: only themes of magic babies, sweet romance, and CEOs; total about 100 minutes, 60 episodes.
- “Live-action, costume, and 3D are not accepted yet because data on Lü Pao Pao is average.”
Why Are Screenwriter Incomes Declining?
Li Ke (pseudonym), a full-time short drama screenwriter since 2024, says:
- First half of the year: “Every script I wrote passed, fees were above 10,000 yuan.”
- Second half: “Hard to pass, fees also dropped.” Hongguo even removed the minimum guarantee for animated dramas.
- Many studios have also lowered fees.
“ByteDance has strong dominance in the short drama track. A slight adjustment to revenue-sharing coefficients and guarantee strategies can cause massive ripples in the industry.”
Now studios demand more: “In short, something AI cannot generate.”
Li Ke is now torn: pursue Hongguo’s “Thousand Titles Plan” for live-action drama—with a 20,000 yuan guarantee, but submission costs for 30 episodes are too high and now full scripts are required—or submit to studios with fees of only a few thousand yuan, “where sunk costs are not so large.”
Regarding Lü Pao Pao, Li Ke admits she hopes it will be a new opportunity, but has not yet felt a wave of script acceptance. “Currently Lü Pao Pao mainly accepts finished films, not scripts. Everyone is still waiting.” She believes WeChat users are older, so stories with strong conflict and fast pace are more attractive—not the free youth-oriented scripts favored by Hongguo.
How Are Platforms Tightening Rules?
Hongguo and other platforms are tightening content review and cooperation rules:
- Screenwriter threshold raised: previously submitting an outline was enough, now full scripts are required.
- “Framework agreements” changed: teams with framework agreements get better Fanqie IP pools and traffic support.
- “Horse racing” system (赛马制): starting this October, Hongguo launched monthly dynamic assessments—if the data of dramas uploaded to the account does not meet standards, the framework agreement is automatically revoked; once data meets standards, it is automatically renewed.
How Is the AI Capacity Explosion Driving Quality?
DataEye-ADX data shows in September 2026:
| Indicator | Data |
|---|---|
| New AI/animation titles on Douyin | 51,800 titles (first time breaking 50,000/month) |
| MoM growth | +10.7% |
| Rate of reaching 100 million views | Only 0.72% |
| Homogeneity | Extremely severe |
After the number of dramas exploded, whether viewers are willing to keep watching becomes the next test. A Shanghai user, Li, admits she used to think short dramas “lowered IQ,” but now her view on AI drama quality is gradually improving: “The visuals are getting better, especially Chinese-made AI American dramas—many of my friends are watching.”
The most brutal transformation is visible in Hengdian. Last year, film crews were everywhere—dinner at 9–10 p.m. was normal. This summer, an industry source visited Hengdian and found: even at meal times, restaurants along the street were empty. Even taxi drivers know: “Hengdian has far fewer film crews—everyone is making AI dramas.”
“Hengpiao” actors are the most squeezed. Some spent years finally getting a lead role—only two months into filming, AI arrived, and there was no more work. Meanwhile, “card pullers” (抽卡师) are also shrinking: editing and card pulling have merged into one position, a team of 8–9 people completes one drama in about 15 days.
Compliance is also tightening. AI scripts can be used, but the biggest risk is copyright infringement—”you don’t know if AI copied someone else’s work.” With tightening supervision of AI content labeling and portrait rights protection, drama makers must pass the compliance gate.
But new signals have emerged: Mango TV aired the AI long drama 《后西游记》—”a TV station directly making AI dramas” gave the industry confidence and made practitioners hope more AI dramas will air on TV.
绿泡泡是否已撼动红果？
暂未。据行业人士透露：”绿泡泡的上线暂时对红果没有多大影响，红果还是正常运转，也没有出台什么针对性的政策去压制它。”
尽管微信拥有庞大用户基础，官方数据显示：
- 绿泡泡用户人均时长约为行业大盘5倍。
- 留存率达行业大盘2.5倍以上。
- 灰度测试期间，AI仿真人短剧《影后芽芽》上线3天播放破数亿，双端触达超1000万用户。
但行业仍视绿泡泡处于摸索期。”绿泡泡主打的’社交裂变’是一把双刃剑——大家看短剧多少有’短剧羞耻症’，并不想到处分享自己最近在看什么。”
红果为何下线”看剧赚金币”？
10月21日，红果宣布分阶段下线金币功能：
- 2026年11月1日起：新用户不再获得金币功能。
- 2026年12月31日前：全面下线金币功能。
- 已获得的金币和现金余额权益不受影响。
“看剧赚金币”曾是红果快速吸引和留住用户的重要方式。很多人为了赚金币而不断播放短剧——这是红果快速做大规模的有效营销策略之一。但当用户规模达到一定程度时，单纯依靠补贴和买量维持增长，平台成本会越来越高。
“如何让观众不再为了金币而看剧，而是为了剧情主动留下来——正成为红果必须回答的问题。”
这也是绿泡泡与红果接下来竞争的关键：前者试图借助微信庞大的用户基础和社交关系链寻找新流量入口；后者则在已有用户规模上调整过去依靠金币激励的运营方式。
AI如何改变短剧生产？
AI已彻底改变一切。曾经，真人剧必须全剧拍完才能投流。如今，AI剧可先做几集试水，投入一些算力成本，剧上线后发现没水花，就可以终止投资。
试错成本极低：一台电脑、一个AI工具、一个抖音账号——就是一家”公司”。”不小心就爆火。”
然而，低成本不等于零门槛。投流是必选项。行业人士指出：
- 他们看投放金额和流水，不看播放量。
- 在自有小程序和官方绿泡泡上播，分成比例3%。
- 在微信视频号里播，分成比例5%。
- 收剧标准严苛：只收萌宝、甜宠、霸总题材；全剧约100分钟、60集。
- “真人、古装、3D暂时不收，因为在绿泡泡上的数据一般。”
编剧稿费为何下降？
2024年开始专职写短剧的编剧李可（化名）表示：
- 上半年：“写一本过一本，稿费都在1万元以上。”
- 下半年：“过稿很难，稿费还变低了。”红果对漫剧甚至直接取消了保底。
- 不少工作室也跟着降了稿费。
“字节系在短剧赛道上占据了较高的主导权，稍微调整一下分账系数和保底策略，就会引起业内巨大波动。”
如今工作室对外收稿要求更高了：“一句话，就是AI生成不了的。”
李可开始纠结：一是冲击红果真人剧的“千部计划”——有机会获得保底2万元稿费，但三十集投稿成本太大，现在还要求全本投稿；二是投给只有几千元稿费的工作室，”沉没成本没那么大”。
对于绿泡泡，李可坦言期待是个新机会，但到目前为止还未感觉到收稿热潮。“目前绿泡泡主要是收成片而不是剧本，大家还在观望。”她判断微信用户偏老龄化，强冲突、快节奏的剧情更能吸引这部分受众——而非红果偏爱的免费流年轻化剧本。
平台如何收紧规则？
红果等平台近期大幅收紧内容审核和合作规则：
- 编剧门槛提高：过去交个大纲就能过稿，现在必须全本交审。
- “框架协议”变味：签好框架协议的团队能获得更优质的番茄IP池和流量扶持。
- “赛马制”：10月红果正式启动月度动态考核——如果上传的短剧内容数据不达标，自动取消框架协议资格；数据达标后自动续约。
AI产能爆炸如何倒逼精品化？
DataEye-ADX数据显示，2026年9月：
| 指标 | 数据 |
|---|---|
| 抖音端原生AI剧/漫剧新剧数 | 5.18万部（首次突破单月5万部） |
| 环比增长 | +10.7% |
| 破亿率 | 仅0.72% |
| 同质化 | 严重 |
剧集数量激增之后，观众是否愿意看下去成了另一道考验。上海用户李女士坦言，以前觉得看短剧是”降智”，如今对AI短剧质感在逐渐改观：”画面越来越好，尤其是国产AI美剧，身边很多朋友都在看。”
转型的残酷性在横店体现得淋漓尽致。去年剧组多如牛毛，晚上九、十点吃晚饭是常态。今年夏天行业人士探访时发现：即便是饭点，整条街的饭店也空无一人。连出租车司机都知道：“横店剧组少了很多，都去做AI剧了。”
横漂演员们更尴尬：有人熬了多年终于熬到女主，刚演两个月，AI来了，没戏拍了。同时，“抽卡师”也在收缩：剪辑与抽卡合并为一个岗位，一个团队八九个人，15天左右就能完成一部剧。
合规的弦也在绷紧。AI剧本能用，但最大的风险是侵权——”你不知道AI是不是抄了别人的。”随着AI生成内容标识、肖像权保护等监管收紧，做剧人须先过合规关。
新的信号已出现：芒果TV把AI长剧《后西游记》搬上荧屏——”电视台亲自下场做AI剧”给了行业信心，也让从业者期待未来会有更多AI剧上星。
